The extended-format informal Cyprus conference held in Geneva under the auspices of United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres concluded with some non-substantive decisions taken merely to protect the prestige of the UN.
In 2017, Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Anastasiades, feeling the full support of the EU and the UN behind him, forced the Turkish Cypriot negotiation team to accept conditions that would completely reduce Turkish Cypriots to a minority in the proposed “Federal State,” leaving them with no say in central governance and placing them in a total minority status in the Federal Parliament, the Council of Ministers, state departments, courts, army, and police. Empowered by the forces backing him, he even put forward the demand of “Zero Troops, Zero Guarantees.”
When this megalomaniac demand by Anastasiades was rejected, he reacted like the owner of the island—throwing his papers and glasses on the table, leaving the meeting room, flying back to South Cyprus the same day—and the Crans-Montana negotiations collapsed.
Over the eight years that have passed since, clearly much has changed. The political, economic, and military power balances in the region have shifted, and the forces backing the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus have taken a step back, withdrawing the support they had been giving the Greek Cypriots since 1963.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ formal announcement of the points agreed upon by both leaders makes the situation clear. Most notably, the issue of “establishing a bi-zonal and bi-communal federation,” which is part of a UN Security Council resolution and something the Greek Cypriots had been working for weeks to bring to the table, was not even discussed.
According to Guterres’ statement, the agreement to cooperate on areas such as opening four new crossing points, clearing landmines, environment and climate issues, establishing a joint solar power plant in the buffer zone, and restoring cemeteries was a major disappointment and defeat for the Greek Cypriots, who see themselves as the sole rulers of the island.
Just a few weeks ago, Christodoulides had said, “Either all eight crossing points open, or none do.” His acceptance of the opening of four points marks a significant political defeat. The plan to establish a solar energy plant in the buffer zone jointly with Turkish Cypriots—whom the Greek Cypriots refuse to see as partners or even recognize—represents an undesired development for them. This will likely be followed within a few years by joint initiatives like a common GSM system, sharing water brought from Turkey, connecting to the EU’s interconnected system via Turkey, and jointly managing the island’s FIR (Flight Information Region) line.
Meanwhile, President Tatar’s statement—“In order for official talks to resume, there must be sovereign equality and equal status. Without this, we cannot proceed”—sends a clear message about the future: that federation-based negotiations will not take place, and that there will be no step back from this position.
It is evident that the idea and imposition of a “bi-zonal, bi-communal federation” has now been abandoned…