The US and Japan’s agreement on trade increased the risk appetite in global markets by strengthening their expectations that they could be compromised with other countries.
While the uncertainties of tariffs around the world remain, the developments related to the issue have an impact on the direction of the markets. The optimism that the US agreement with Japan, one of the largest trade partners, and another partner China, can begin its contacts next week, reduced the risk perception of risk in the markets.
US President Donald Trump said that the trade agreement with Japan has been completed. In this context, Japan will pay 15 percent customs duty. The fact that the rate in question was lower than Trump’s 25 percent tariff, supported the positive atmosphere in the markets.
Trump, Truth Social account on the subject, the agreement with Japan, “perhaps the biggest agreement ever made” described.
Stating that Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the United States and they will receive 90 percent of the snow, Trump said that this agreement will be created hundreds of thousands of employment.
Trump pointed out that Japan will open its country to automobiles and vans, rice and some other agricultural products.
Eyes in the US-China meeting
On the other hand, expectations that the US administration could be reached with other trade partners, especially the Chinese and the European Union (EU), has increased, while the eyes turned into a possible meeting of Beijing and Washington next week.
US Treasury Minister Scott Bessent said that they will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm, Sweden next week, and that the extension of the postponement time for China can be discussed.
With these developments, the optimism continued to reach a compromise in tariffs, while the concerns that the tariffs to be applied, albeit at low rates could increase inflationary pressures, did not disappear.
This keeps the question marks on the agenda of the US Central Bank (FED) monetary policy due to the risks in the US, despite the macroeconomic data in the USA.
Analysts stated that the attitudes of the FED officials on interest rate cuts are among the factors that make it difficult to pricing, and that the Fed was considered to keep the policy interest fixed this month in the pricing in the money markets.
Yesterday, FED President Jerome Powell spoke at the Holiz Conference on the Holistic Review of the Capital Framework for Great Banks ”. Powell did not say anything that would affect the markets here.
Bond interest rates rose
Following these developments yesterday, the US 10 -year bond interest rate decreased to 4.35 percent in a row and the 5th trading day decreased, currently 4.37 percent. The dollar index started the day at 97.5.
Increasing interest rate reduction expectations with the weakening of the dollar index and the decline of bond interest rates of the power of the ounce of gold yesterday increased by 1 percent to 3 thousand 431 dollars increased to the 3rd trading day. With the trade agreement, the price of ounce of gold is traded for 3 thousand 418 dollars with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the new day.
Brent oil price of the $ 0.1 percent of the price of $ 68.2 is finding buyers.
On the corporate side, the shares of US car manufacturer General Motors, who released the balance sheet yesterday, lost more than 8 percent despite the fact that they reported financial results exceeding expectations. The company announced that it was affected by $ 1.1 billion in the second quarter of tariffs.
Coca-Cola’s shares, which announced that it plans to launch a product made with sugar cane in the USA in autumn, fell by about 1 percent despite the fact that the wife and income came above expectations.
The shares of the US defense company Lockheed Martin fell close to 11 percent after the announcement of results below expectations.
Yesterday at the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.06 percent to reassure the closing record. The Dow Jones index gained 0.4 percent, while the NASDAQ index fell 0.39 percent. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a positive course.
August 1 is expected in Europe
While the European stock exchanges dominated yesterday, the postponement that will end in tariffs with the United States as of August 1 continues to remain in the focus of investors whether or not to evolve into an agreement.
The European Central Bank (ECB) issued a report on the results of the Bank Credit Survey (BLS), which was attended by 151 banks in the Euro Region. The report said that in the second quarter of the year, the demand for loans of the companies in the Euro Region increased slightly, and the demand will continue to increase in the third quarter of the year due to decreasing debt costs. The ECB showed the interest rates falling in the Eurozone by causing the increase in demand.
Monetary policy decisions that ECB will announce tomorrow are the focus of investors, while the bank is expected to take a break from interest rate cuts at tomorrow’s meeting. It is estimated that ECB will make the next interest rate cut at September or December meetings.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index increased by 0.12 percent yesterday, while DAX 40 percent in Germany and CAC 40 index in France decreased by 0.69 percent. In Italy, the FTSE MIB 30 index watched horizontal. Index -term contracts in Europe started the day.
Trade Agreement Position in Asian Stock Exchanges
Asian stock exchanges rose under the leadership of the automotive sector with the optimism of the agreement between the US and Japan.
With Trump announced that an agreement with Japan was reached, the rise in the Japanese automotive giants Subaru, Mazda Motors Toyota and Honda shares exceeded 10 percent. South Korean automotive manufacturer Hyundai engine shares increased by 8 percent.
In addition to economic developments, political developments in Japan are followed by investors. Kyodo News Agency yesterday’s news, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’nın ruling coalition after the election defeat in August reportedly expected to resign.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan, nearly closing, KOSPİ index in South Korea, 0.2 percent, Hong Kong in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Index rose by 1.2 percent and Shanghai compound index in China rose by 0.8 percent.
Eyes in Turkey will be in the consumer confidence index
Yesterday, BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which watched horizontally, completed the day at 10.616,18 points. In the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Option Market (VIOP) BIST 30 index -based contract, the August futures contract was traded at 12.249.00 points with a limited increase compared to the closing of the normal session yesterday evening.
Dollar/TL, yesterday, 40,4020, 40,4020, today, today the opening of the interbank market increased by 0.1 percent with 40,4290 traded.
Analysts, consumer confidence index in the country today, abroad, Consumer Confidence Index in the Euro Region, the US weekly mortgage applications and existing housing sales will be followed, he said.
Analysts stated that the news flow of the tariffs will be effective on the direction of the index, technically, the BIST 100 index 10.700 and 10.800 levels are supported by 10,500 and 10.400 points.
The data to be followed in the markets today is as follows:
09.00 Japan, June annual machine orders
10.00 Türkiye, July Consumer Confidence Index
14.00 USA, weekly mortgage applications
17.00 euro region, July Consumer Confidence Index
17.00 USA, June in June
Source: OriginalArticle